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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Our Top Stock - Market Signal Says "BUY" BY Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Our Top Stock-Market SignalSays "Buy"

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Get ready. Our top stock market signal is just about to flash a "buy."

And this is big news because going back to the 1920s,
this signal's track record is fantastic...
In fact, the last time this signal flashed was December 2007.
Back then it said "GET OUT OF STOCKS."
It hasn't wavered since...
The signal has stood its ground, saying "stay out of stocks,"
since 2007. Don't you wish you had paid attention to it?

Here's the secret to the market-beating success of this signal:
It has a history of keeping you out of the big downturns in stock prices.
The signal captures most of the uptrend as well.

Let me share this signal's incredible track record.
Our "baseline" is the overall stock market – the S&P 500 Index.
This index has compounded at 5% a year since 1926,
not including dividends.

(Yes, it's true... Most people think the stock market has done better than that.
But the recent bear market reduced the historical return.)


When the signal said "be in stocks"
– two-thirds of the time –
stocks rose at a compound rate of 11% per year
(again, not including dividends).

The other third of the time,
when the signal said "be OUT of stocks,"
stocks actually compounded at a negative 6% per year.

This incredibly simple idea comes down to one question:
Are stocks above or below their recent average prices?

If stocks are above their recent average,
then you want to own them.
If they're below it, then you don't want to own them.

When the S&P 500 Index is above its 45-week moving average,
stocks compound at an astounding 11% annual rate.
And when stocks are below it,
they lose money at 6% per year.

Here's a simple graph showing how much money you'd have made since the beginning of 2000 following this system, versus the index.

We own stocks above the moving average
and move to cash earning 3%
(just to keep the math easy)
when stocks are below the moving average.

The blue line is the money in our little "system."

You're in cash when the blue line goes "straight."

The black line is your money if you just held the market (not including dividends).

You can see a few things right away...

The first is, you did significantly better than buy and hold.
Most importantly, you cut your losses in the two big falls
– the one from 2000 to 2003 and the one from 2007 to today.

With results like these,
why doesn't everyone simply own stocks when they're above the line?
Before I go on...
there is one small issue here that can eat into your returns...
something called "whipsaws."
That's when the market crosses over the line one week
and then crosses back the next week.
The argument goes that the transaction costs associated
with jumping in and out on these false signals would eat up your excess gains.

This worry has merit,
but you can nearly get rid of whipsaws quite easily
by increasing the threshold it takes to get into a trade.
When you raise the threshold to enter the trade to 2%
above the moving average, you cut the whipsaws down by over 80%.

And even though you've made it tougher to get into a trade,
the amazing part is, you don't affect your results much.

In this example, not only would you have ended up with more money,
but you'd have had far fewer transactions, meaning lower costs.

You might disagree with this system.
You might say it's too simple or dumb.
But it's worked darn well over the last 80 years...
and over the last decade.

This Is When the Big Money Is Made in Stocks Do This,
And You'll Never Suffer Another 2008

And right now, this signal is about to say "buy" –
because the old high data points are about to drop out of the 45-week average,
and low ones will replace them.



Remember, when it says "buy" stocks rise at 11%+ a year... Ignore it at your own risk.

What would you do with 100,000 of Family Money ? By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

What Would You Do With $100,000 of Family Money?

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

In 1993, my father did something incredibly nice for me...

He entrusted me to manage $100,000 of his money.

This was far from pocket change...
My dad was a career Navy man,
and my mom a school teacher
– not exactly get-rich-quick professions.
And neither of them came from money.

On May 12th: Capture this $960 payout

Next Tuesday, you can buy what is certainly the safest stock in America...

Minutes later, you can "capture" an incredible cash payout of up to $960 or more.

Soon after, you can sell your shares...
or hold this great company for the long-term.
Click here for the full details.-----------------------------------

I was just starting out as a stockbroker. I
have the full academic education in finance, all the way to a PhD.
But looking back, the biggest financial education
I ever received was from that $100,000...

The money was an enormous weight.
This was my dad's IRA money...
What if I screwed it up? I was determined not to lose it.

So in my dad's portfolio,
I was conservative.
I only bought "deep value" stocks and safe income plays.
And I only bought once they'd fallen
to the point where it seemed we couldn't possibly lose money.
(And then they'd go down!)

I wish I could tell you I doubled or
tripled his account in a few years.
The reality is, it crept forward.
And if I didn't have the "tailwind" of a slight uptrend in the market,
it might have crept backward.

Meanwhile, I had a client in New York whose account was the same size as my dad's.
Ellen was probably 70 years old.
But she was not afraid of the markets...

"My dear,
what's Malaysia Fund doing today?" she'd ask.

"It's around $16," I'd tell her.
The stock was up from where she bought it.

"Buy me some more of it," she'd say.

"But Ellen, you've already got a big stake in this one,
and you can't lose this money. Are you sure?"

"Buy me some more of it."

"OK."

A few weeks would go by.
Then we'd have the same conversation,
only the fund was $2 higher...

"Where's Malaysia Fund today?"

"It's around $18."

"Buy me some more of it."

"Are you sure?
This is really getting to be a big stake here..."

"Buy me some more of it."

Ellen's account was going up in nearly every position.
Meanwhile, my dad's account was just treading water.
My main goal was not to lose his money.
I was scared to take a risk.
So I wasn't making him much money.

A couple more months went by.
I got the same call from Ellen.
With the Malaysia Fund at $23, she bought even more.

At this point, I didn't really protest.
I didn't tell her this...
but it seemed to me she was better at this than I was.
Heck, she'd been at it longer than me.

When a stock my dad owned went up 20%, we sold it.
I could hardly wait to lock in a profit.
Meanwhile, this little old lady from New York was doing the opposite...

When a stock Ellen owned went up 20%,

she was buying more.
And she was making real money.

I wish this story had a happy ending.
But like most individual investors,
Ellen didn't have any "exit strategy."
She didn't use trailing stops or anything else.
Instead, she made the all-too-human error of hanging on too long.

In other words, she only got it half right.

In DailyWealth, and in my newsletter True Wealth,
I've showed you the easiest lesson of successful investing:

Cut your losers and let your winners ride.

Nobody taught us that in business school.
But around the time I was working with Ellen,
I read the book Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager.
The guys in the book made their fortunes in various ways...
but there was one common thread:
These successful traders simply tried to
catch the majority of an uptrend (let their winners ride)
and avoid the big downtrends (cutting their losers using things like trailing stops).

The Easiest Lesson of Successful Investing Don’t Lose Money: The Most Important Law of Lasting Wealth

I hope that – as a DailyWealth reader or True Wealth subscriber
– trailing stops have helped you ride the big uptrends and avoid the big downtrends.
(And if you haven't been using them,
I hope the experience of the last few years is proof of their value...)

If you want to make a lot of money in the markets... and not lose much when your stocks go down... then you need to follow the Market Wizards and Ellen and let your winners ride.

More importantly,

you need an

exit strategy

to cut your losers

early so you can always keep your account heading in the right direction – up.

Good investing,

Collect $500 gov't -backed dividend Checks every 3 months

Collect $500 gov't-backed dividendchecks every 3 months

I'm sure you've heard that big corporations
have been slashing their dividend payments lately because of the economy.

For example, Wells Fargo recently cut its dividend...
as did BMW, GE, NY Times, and Pfizer.

But there's one unique enterprise
Porter recommends right now that has actually DOUBLED its dividend payments in 2008.

This is one of the safest,
most profitable businesses in the world...
And there's a simple reason for it:
The assets this enterprise owns are 100% backed by the U.S. government,
thanks to an act of Congress and Public Law 110-289.
In other words, this organization is subject to very little stock market risk.
They have continued paying dividends – without fail – every 3 months since 1998.

Recently, as the rest of the market is trying to downsize and cut costs,
they've started paying out more money to shareholders than ever before.
And as the economic recession continues,
they will likely continue to pay out more and more money.

Currently, for every 500 shares you own,
you're set to receive a $250 check every 3 months.

With 1,000 shares,
you're likely to get a steady $500 check in the mail
– every March, June, September, and December.

Even The Wall Street Journal noted in wonder:
"The dividends [they] pay out... have risen in recent months."

Ben Holmes, publisher of the research site Morningnotes.com, is astonished:
"They're raising staggering amounts of cash."
The best part is, this organization is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
It's as easy to buy as any regular security.

But keep in mind, nothing about their business model is ordinary.
They don't have any products;
they don't offer any services.
They simply own assets that are backed by the U.S. government.
(And I'm not talking about U.S. treasury bills either.)

As Porter just put it:
"If you don't own shares of [this company],
you're missing out on easy money."

If you take advantage of this 30-day free sneak preview to Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory, you will receive complimentary access to the special report detailing this incredible opportunity.

It's called: Government-Backed Dividends.

Again: You will receive this report -- along with the report called Your Personal Stimulus Package -- free of charge when you take advantage of your free 30-day "sneak peek." In a market like the one we're in now, this kind of advice and research can help you know exactly what to do...

Help you protect your money...

And most importantly, help you make a lot of money... no matter what happens in the economy and stock market.

So...

If you like to watch your money grow, safely...
if you want the opportunity to make triple-digit gains,
year after year...
if you want the chance to make A LOT more income...
and you want to know the safest places to potentially make big gains in the next year...

How to get rich - thanks to the government

How to get rich—thanks to the government

When governments spend a ton of money

-- like the U.S. government is doing right now --

savvy investors can get incredibly rich.

All you need to do is know where to stand to collect the money.

As Porter just wrote:

"The President plans to borrow more money over the next eight years than all of the 43 other presidents combined...

"But this will make lots of people rich.
All you have to do is own the most important
economic assets: energy, communication, and transportation.

In the early stages of this crisis,
the value of these impossible-to-replace assets will soar
– because they are the assets the government has to have for the economy to function...
. so you ought to build a stimulus package for yourself.
I probably don't have to tell you
what a huge amount of money the government is planning on spending...

According to Bloomberg, as of March 31,
the total price tag for everything will add up to around $12.8 trillion.

$40.1 billion of that (so far) is going into
all kinds of U.S. infrastructure projects... such as road improvements,
airport runway maintenance, electrical grid upgrades,
and rural broadband internet extensions.
It happens every time:
When governments start spending crazy money on projects like these,
smart investors get rich.

For example...

The Transcontinental Railroad in the 1860's.
Congress approved a "coast-to-coast" rail line to connect all the major cities west of the Mississippi River.

Funded by free government money and land grants,
railroad tycoons and their investors made fortunes.
One was Cyrus K. Holliday,
who became one of the richest men in America
and made huge fortunes for his investors from building the Santa Fe line...

Another was private-school educated John Murray Forbes,
who built the Burlington line and made himself and his investors millionaires...

President Eisenhower's U.S. Interstate System in the '50's and '60s.
Congress approved the Federal-Aid Highway Act on June 29, 1956,
to spend billions on what's now our national highway system.

Thanks to heavy government spending,
firms who helped do the building made easy money for their investors...
like Caterpillar and John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil (now Exxon),
which made hundreds of percent gains...

China's infrastructure boom, 2003-2008.

The Chinese government spent trillions
on everything from railroad lines and superhighways,
to hydroelectric dams and pipelines.

Investors who followed the free government money made astonishing gains.

For example,

ABB, a power transmission and distribution company, made investors 2,019% gains.

Chicago Bridge & Iron, an engineering and construction firm,
returned 691% gains.

And Foster Wheeler, a pipeline building company, made investors 1,485% gains...

My point is...

When the government spends a ton of money on big public works projects --
for whatever reason -- you could make a ton of money too.

Here's the best part:

The money going into infrastructure
from the economic stimulus package isn't something
that's going to happen in the next six months to a year...

It's happening right now... in all 50 states.

On Monday, April 13, 2009,

NBC News reported:

"President Obama, Vice President Biden,

and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood

gathered to highlight the 2,000th project (a highway expansion in Michigan) funded through the economic stimulus.

"Just 41 days ago we announced funding for the first transportation project... and
today we're approving the 2,000th project," said President Obama.

" As you can see, in the next four years, government money will be blasted into U.S. energy, communications, and public works infrastructure...

And when you take your 30-day free preview, Porter will show you the three ways he recommends you follow the government money... and potentially "cash in" yourself.
As you'll see, the investments Porter recommends have nothing to do with construction, engineering, or building materials.

(Porter says of one of these companies, "If you're going to build anything in the United States, you're probably going to need this [asset]... ")

As the government money really starts pouring into the system,

these 3 stocks could do as well as the companies who profited from the China building boom -- like

ABB (2,019% gains) and

Foster Wheeler (1,485% gains)...

Porter has put together a report that explains

-- step by step --

the 3 infrastructure sectors you should get into...

and the reasons why you should, as soon as possible.

This report is called Your Personal Stimulus Package.

One winner every 61 days - over 10 years

One winner every 61 days—over 10 years

Porter started his advisory letter in 1999, at the start of the dotcom technology boom.
Through the Internet boom and bust...

September 11, 2001,
when the last thing on people's minds were stocks...
And the real estate boom (and bust) ten years later...

Porter has helped his readers see substantial gains, year after year... no matter what's happening in the stock market.

Here's a sample of Porter's many winning recommendations over the last ten years:

1.JDS Uniphase592%
2.Celgene233%
3.ID Biomedical215%
4.Elan207%
5.Broadcom199%
6.Exelon160%(and climbing)
7.Akamai166%
8.Align156%
9.Intuitive Surgical133%
10.Raytheon93%

Looking at that list... I can't think of anyone in the business with a better long-term track record than Porter.

As a matter of fact, since he started his letter, he's picked 59 total winners overall — 45 of which made either double- or triple-digit gains.

That works out to be one moneymaking recommendation every 61 days... over the last ten years.

Results like these are why Porter has so many loyal subscribers...

"Porter, you are my Hero! I have been with Stansberry for about 3 years and you are truly exceptional.
All my friends are down 45% to 55%, I in turn come skipping out of my office almost every day.

MY INVESTMENT SUCCESS I HAVE TO SOLELY THANK YOU FOR AND YOUR GREAT TEAM.

Thank you VERY much." – Uli Hessel

"Porter, Thanks for all you do for your subscribers. Notwithstanding your unique, entertaining personality, you and your organization are brutally honest and transparent, I couldn't ask for more from my investment newsletters." – Sean Culpepper

I have traded stocks for 27 years. I opened my first brokerage account when I was 18. I am very thrilled with what you have done for my net worth. My portfolio has roughly tripled after going with Porter's picks. Thank you." – Brian Bartram, Winter Park, FL

"You guys do a heck of job with your analysis... I haven't seen any better in my 17 years of professional financial money management." – Jay Anderson So considering what's going on in the U.S. right now...

What does Porter think you should do with your money today? As soon as you take your free preview, you'll receive the details on Porter's favorite opportunity for 2009... and how you could make a lot of money from the situation...

525% on the fall of Goldman Sachs

525% on the fall of Goldman Sachs

When the mortgage crisis started...
Every big bank in the world took big losses on their bad mortgage debt...
Everyone, that is, except Goldman Sachs.

So Porter took a closer look at the situation.

On October 30, 2007, he told readers: "What's most interesting to me about the whole mortgage mess? The share price of Goldman Sachs hit a new high yesterday. Which do you believe is more likely: The managing directors at Goldman Sachs are incredibly superior to every other investment bank in the world... or the firm simply hasn't come clean yet with the real value of its mortgage holdings?"

Once again, Porter was right on the money.

"There's no way GMcan survive..."

March 14, 2007:

Porter told his Investment Advisory readers:

"GM is now in a death spiral. Given the rapid decline of operations and revenue, I think it will be very lucky to survive 2008. There's no way GM can last through the end of 2009 without filing for bankruptcy."

April 19, 2009:

The Financial Times ran this story:

Markets on alert for GM bankruptcy: "A Chapter 11 filing by GM is inevitable..."

Five months after Porter wrote his initial report -- and after Goldman swore up and down that it did not have exposure to the mortgage mess -- Goldman announced it had lost $1 billion, thanks to the mortgage mess. Since then, I'm sure you know what happened...

Goldman's shareholders got killed. The stock crashed from $200 per share to around $50...
Meanwhile, you would have had the chance to make as much as 5 times your money on the Goldman Sachs situation, like Porter reader Mike Suazo did...

Mike told us: "I made a ton of money, and it was on a single trade. I listened to what you had to say, Porter, about Goldman... I was stopped out after four days for a 525% gain! I'm ecstatic." The truth is, Porter's readers have had some of the most profitable information in the entire financial research business during the mortgage crisis.

But no matter what's going on in the economy or the stock market, Porter has produced safe, consistent results.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Top Ten Financial Tips for 2009

Top Ten Financial Tips
for About.com

Keys to Financial Success
Although making resolutions to improve your financial situation is a good thing to do at any time of year, many people find it easier at the beginning of a new year. Regardless of when you begin, the basics remain the same. Here are my top ten keys to getting ahead financially.

1. Get Paid What You're Worth and Spend Less Than You Earn
It sounds simplistic, but many people struggle with this first basic rule. Make sure you know what your job is worth in the marketplace, by conducting an evaluation of your skills, productivity, job tasks, contribution to the company, and the going rate, both inside and outside the company, for what you do. Being underpaid even a thousand dollars a year can have a significant cumulative effect over the course of your working life.

No matter how much or how little you're paid, you'll never get ahead if you spend more than you earn. Often it's easier to spend less than it is to earn more, and a little cost-cutting effort in a number of areas can result in big savings. It doesn't always have to involve making big sacrifices.
2. Stick to a Budget

One of my favorite subjects: budgeting. It's not a four-letter word. How can you know where your money is going if you don't budget? How can you set spending and saving goals if you don't know where your money is going? You need a budget whether you make thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.
Related Resources:

3. Pay Off Credit Card Debt

Credit card debt is the number one obstacle to getting ahead financially. Those little pieces of plastic are so easy to use, and it's so easy to forget that it's real money we're dealing with when we whip them out to pay for a purchase, large or small. Despite our good resolves to pay the balance off quickly, the reality is that we often don't, and end up paying far more for things than we would have paid if we had used cash.

4. Contribute to a Retirement Plan

If your employer has a 401(k) plan and you don't contribute to it, you're walking away from one of the best deals out there. Ask your employer if they have a 401(k) plan (or similar plan), and sign up today. If you're already contributing, try to increase your contribution. If your employer doesn't offer a retirement plan, consider an IRA.

5. Have a Savings Plan

You've heard it before: Pay yourself first! If you wait until you've met all your other financial obligations before seeing what's left over for saving, chances are you'll never have a healthy savings account or investments. Resolve to set aside a minimum of 5% to 10% of your salary for savings BEFORE you start paying your bills. Better yet, have money automatically deducted from your paycheck and deposited into a separate account.

6. Invest!

If you're contributing to a retirement plan and a savings account and you can still manage to put some money into other investments, all the better.


7. Maximize Your Employment Benefits
Employment benefits like a 401(k) plan, flexible spending accounts, medical and dental insurance, etc., are worth big bucks. Make sure you're maximizing yours and taking advantage of the ones that can save you money by reducing taxes or out-of-pocket expenses.


8. Review Your Insurance Coverages

Too many people are talked into paying too much for life and disability insurance, whether it's by adding these coverages to car loans, buying whole-life insurance policies when term-life makes more sense, or buying life insurance when you have no dependents. On the other hand, it's important that you have enough insurance to protect your dependents and your income in the case of death or disability.

9. Update Your Will

70% of Americans don't have a will. If you have dependents, no matter how little or how much you own, you need a will. If your situation isn't too complicated you can even do your own with software like WillMaker from Nolo Press. Protect your loved ones. Write a will.

10. Keep Good Records

If you don't keep good records, you're probably not claiming all your allowable income tax deductions and credits. Set up a system now and use it all year. It's much easier than scrambling to find everything at tax time, only to miss items that might have saved you money.


Reality Check

How are you doing on the top ten list? If you're not doing at least six of the ten, resolve to make improvements. Choose one area at a time and set a goal for incorporating all ten into your lifestyle.